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Basinger Investment Group, LLC


AHWATUKEE
5010 East Warner Road
Suite 208
Phoenix, AZ 85044

SCOTTSDALE
6991 East Camelback Road
Suite D200
Scottsdale, AZ 85251
(by appointment)
Phone:
  • (480) 855-3993
Fax:
  • (480) 855-7661

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2018 Midyear Outlook – Late Cycle Doesn't Mean End of Cycle

As of this writing, the current economic expansion turns nine years old and is the second longest since modern records began in 1945.  It seems the further the expansion and the related equity bull market run, the more pointed the question, How much longer can they go?  A wide variety of indicators and trends convince us the cycle could run for another year or longer.  Risks do build late in business cycles and can alter the risk/reward balance in portfolios.  We believe investors need to remain diligent to higher interest rates and growing trade tensions. Rising oil prices can dampen consumer spending and a flattening yield curve has proven to be a trusted historical signpost for recession watch by investors; these events are worthy of a watchful eye.

Read our full report, 2018 Midyear Outlook which offers three portfolio moves and risks for the balance of 2018.

2018 Year-End Forecasts

We believe that the US econimic expansion is entering the final third of its cycle and developed markets as a whole are likely in the mid-cycle, while emerging markets arre bordering early-to mid-cycle.

Consumption

Inflation

Fed Rates

Commodities

Globalization

We retain a favorable outlook for most U.S. equities based on a broadening economic recovery. US GDP growth expected at 2.9%. 

Inflation is still  expected to rise modestly this year as credit related spending activity increases.Year-end target remains at 2.4%.

Global central banks are gradually reducing liquidity with the Fed leading the way. We expect 3 interest rate hikes in 2018.

Commodities remain in the midst of a bear market supercycle; we therefore have an unfavorable view toward this group.

 We expect the balance of the year to deliver continued synchronized global growth and moderate inflation for 2018.

Financial markets have oscillated between confidence and concern.  Yet, knowledgeable investors realize that volatility can accompany a maturing recovery, and they prepare their portfolios as opportunities evolve.  Three strategies we believe investors can use to navigate this late-cycle market.

  1. Favor stocks over bonds and U.S. over international
  2. Weigh risk and reward even more carefully than usual
  3. Take advantage of volatility

Call if you have questions or if you want to discuss whether you need to make adjustments to your investments to help prepare for the months ahead.

 


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Let us know what questions you have or if you would like to schedule an appointment to discuss your specific circumstances.

You may reach us by calling (480) 855-3993 or emailing jbasinger@wfafinet.com.  

We look forward to hearing from you!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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