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2019 Outlook – The End of Easy

During the past decade, many asset price trends have persisted with limited interruption.  Unusually, equity and bond prices rose together, U.S. market performance dominated international markets and only a few equity sectors led prolonged periods of outperformance.  A number of these long-term trends are shifting, marking the end of easy.

To be clear, the end of easy doesn't mean the end of the cycle.  The expansion is old but not over!

Five ways investors can position portfolios for the end of easy

  1. Position for growth in equity markets
  2. Maintain positions in high-quality fixed income
  3. Diversify into international assets
  4. Lower allocations to the most rate-sensitive assets
  5. Deploy cash as volatility creates opportunities

Read our full report, 2019 Outlook and Refining Our 2019 Outlook, which offer timely and actionable investment advice.

2019 Forecasts

We expect the U.S. economic growth to remain positive, albeit at a slower pace. We favor emerging markets and U.S. large and mid-cap equities and we look to the Fed to end its current rate-hike cycle by the end of 2019.



Fed Rates

Real Assets


We expect U.S. economic growth to slow slightly to 2.5% in 2019. 

Our 2019 inflation forecast is for 2.2%.We expect stable U.S. consumer price inflation to support the economy.

We expect the Fed to hike rates in 2019, bringing the federal funds rate between 2.75-3.00%.

Commodities should be good performers in 2019, while REIT's could underperform 

 We believe the dollar will stabilize and even weaken slightly, providing a potential boost to international assets.

Call if you have questions or if you want to discuss whether you need to make adjustments to your investments to help prepare for the months ahead.


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Let us know what questions you have or if you would like to schedule an appointment to discuss your specific circumstances.

You may reach us by calling (480) 855-3993 or emailing  

We look forward to hearing from you!